All About Access: Solving America’s Force Posture Puzzle
by Renanah M. Joyce and Becca Wasser
While extensive debate about US global force posture focuses on forward presence, a critical and underappreciated element is access. Changing US presence and attaining a resilient, combat-credible force posture to enhance US security will require retaining and expanding access, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. Here’s how.
Why the United States Is Losing—And Russia and Iran Are Winning
by Dominic Tierney
Since the September 11 attacks, major American wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya have all been strategic failures, while Russia and Iran achieved significant success during campaigns in Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, and Iraq. Why does the United States lose, whereas Russia and Iran win?
The China-Russia Connection
“East Rising, West Falling”: Not So Fast, History Suggests
by Leigh Sarty
A senior Canadian diplomat who served in Moscow and Beijing argues that increasing strategic concerns of an evolving Sino-Russian partnership are somewhat misplaced. History and a fuller appreciation of the origins of the current stand-off with authoritarianism provide encouraging perspective at a time when it appears badly needed.
Russia in the Era of Great Power Competition
by Jeffrey Mankoff
To a significant degree, the United States continues to think about Russia as a disruptor more than a true great power rival. That view underestimates both the nature and durability of Russian power as the United States focuses on the “pacing threat” of China.
How Autocrats Manipulate Online Information: Putin’s and Xi’s Playbooks
by Jessica Brandt
The information domain is perhaps the most consequential terrain over which rival states will compete in the century to come, and it is where Moscow and Beijing have leveraged some of the sharpest asymmetries. What are Russia’s and China’s information strategies and tradecraft? Where do their goals converge, and where do they differ? And how have they changed recently?
Have We Passed the Peak of Sino-Russian Rapprochement?
by Alexander Lukin
The former diplomat from Moscow argues that a new period of high cooperation between China and Russia began between 2014 and 2016, but recent developments such as Beijing’s assertive new foreign policy, its “wolf warrior” diplomacy, and several repercussions from the COVID pandemic suggest that the peak of relations has probably passed.
How to Distance Russia from China
by Timothy W. Crawford
The point of trying to distance Russia from China is not to flip Moscow to balance against Beijing, but to remove Russia as an enabler of China’s risk-taking. To do this, it is necessary to correctly answer three questions, addressed here: what is the mainspring of Russia-China convergence? What is the essential danger that their convergence poses? And what do we do about it?
Provocations
A Call to Arms: Kim Jong Un and the Tactical Bomb
by Ankit Panda
In January 2021, Kim Jong Un alluded to “tactical nuclear weapons,” among other significant nuclear force accomplishments. Does he intend to deploy them? If so, it would be the most meaningful development in North Korea’s nuclear forces since its 2017 ICBM tests, with serious implications for escalation management and nuclear use on the Korean peninsula.
Japan’s New Economic Statecraft
by Akira Igata and Brad Glosserman
Three factors led former Prime Minister Abe to reinvigorate Japan’s economic statecraft after two decades of stagnation with some successful foundational first steps. But Tokyo should consider these further measures—some fundamental, some defensive, and some proactive.
Behind the Headlines
Insights from previous issues
Exploring Indo-Pacific Convergences: The Australia-France-India Trilateral Dialogue
by Frédéric Grare
The former French Ministry of Defense official lays out the significance of and the dynamics that led to the September 2020 trilateral dialogue—a minilateral coalition of middle powers to manage both a common evolution of Indo-Pacific policies toward China’s rise and their respective relationships with the United States in an era of growing uncertainty about its trajectory. From our Winter 2021 issue.
A European Strategy for the Indo-Pacific
by Garima Mohan
Europe’s turn toward the Indo-Pacific has surprised many over the past two years. So, what is the role non-resident actors who have a stake in the region can play? As European foreign policy grapples with China’s rise and avoiding US-China competition, it may find much in common with Japan, India, Australia, and ASEAN. From our Winter 2021 issue.
Cold War Lessons and Fallacies for US-China Relations Today
by Michael McFaul
The former US ambassador to Russia argues that the “Cold War” analogy distorts, more than illuminates, dynamics in US-China relations today. Although some dimensions are similar, and some lessons are worth emulating, many challenges require creative strategic thinking, not simply dusting off the Cold War playbook. From our Winter 2021 issue.
Is the Chinese Communist Party Ready for the Future?
by Jude Blanchette and Evan S. Medeiros
As the CCP celebrates its 100th anniversary, the Party’s trajectory will be shaped by its ability to rectify a series of accumulating tensions, particularly these three, that are the result of Xi Jinping’s governing philosophy. From our Summer 2021 issue.
Orienting the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review
by Brad Roberts
While recommending two modest opportunities to reduce nuclear dangers, the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review codirector cautions against sweeping changes to nuclear deterrence strategy or posture if the United States is to maintain an effective deterrent and a strong and credible extended deterrent in a nuclear security environment that has eroded since 2009. From our Summer 2021 issue.
Rethinking Nuclear Arms Control
by Rose Gottemoeller
The former NATO Deputy Secretary General argues that arms control is not “dead” but has three futures when in the national interest: immediate successes, such as extending New START, to regain momentum; medium-term, to confront new and complex issues; and distant, to embrace new technologies. From our Fall 2020 issue.
