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Features
China's New Economic Weapons
by Evan S. Medeiros and Andrew Polk
China has been expanding its economic coercion tools since 2018—documented by the authors in a comprehensive dataset—deploying a new collection of legal and regulatory instruments, effectively acting as "precision-guided economic munitions." Now, in response to the Trump administration's actions, Beijing may be on the threshold of a further evolution, weaponizing its global economic connections in an increasingly asymmetric manner.
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Pathways to Protraction: Rethinking US-China Conflict
by Sheena Chestnut Greitens
Although planners and commentators have mostly focused on prevailing in the early stages of any potential conflict, war with China is likely to be much more prolonged, leading to potentially lethal gaps in capabilities, authorities, and plans in a crisis. What would progress in planning for protraction look like? Six key questions will shape the contours of potential conflict with China.
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Conquering Taiwan by Other Means: China's Expanding Coercive Options
by Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara
A Chinese seizure of Taiwan without invasion is rarely debated but deserves more scrutiny than it receives. Beijing has, or will soon have, a variety of coercive tools at its disposal, and the policy discourse has not adequately considered why or how China might seek to annex Taiwan by means short of an all-out invasion. How could Beijing try to achieve these goals?
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Taiwan: Defending a Non-Vital US Interest
by Michael D. Swaine
Taiwan is not a vital interest of the United States that would justify US efforts to defend the island at all costs or even to treat it as a formal security partner. The United States should start gradually transitioning to an explicit policy of conditional but significant support for Taiwan that removes the possibility of going to war with China over the island.
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Considering a US-Supported Self-Defense Option for Taiwan
by Charles L. Glaser
The risk of a war with China over Taiwan is not a vital US interest, leading to a search for alternative US strategies. The United States should end its commitment to use force to come to Taiwan's defense, but continue to help Taiwan defend itself by providing arms and training, resembling the US strategy in Ukraine.
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Provocations
Nervous Allies and Trump: Nuclear Lessons from NATO
by Richard K. Betts
A US ally's need to balance conflicting pressures—depend on a risky US nuclear guarantee or pay a high price to escape—resurrects the appeal that NATO has managed over seven decades: some form of sharing control of nuclear weapons. But what would "sharing" mean for countries like South Korea today? Is nuclear sharing strategically serious or cosmetic?
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The New Nuclear Sufficiency and Risk Reduction
by Heather Williams
A change is coming to America's strategic posture, but what would a sufficient arsenal look like? Although a nuclear buildup could create risks of arms racing, escalation and nuclear use, and weakening nuclear order, there are also risks of not changing, such as further regional aggression and allied proliferation. Fortunately, changes to a new nuclear sufficiency can also create opportunities for risk reduction tailored to a competitive, not cooperative, strategic environment.
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Modernizing US Indian Ocean Strategy
by Peter Dean, Michael Green, and Alice Nason
The Indian Ocean region has becoming dangerously contested by Beijing's regional ambitions and Iranian irredintism. The next decade demands a new US approach with its allies and partners built on six key pillars embracing asymmetric advantages and centering cooperation within the Quad as well as with India, while expanding infrastructure development and democratic resilience in small Indian Ocean states.
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A US Strategy for Advancing EU Enlargement
by Nicholas Lokker
There are currently ten official or potential candidates for EU membership, yet daunting although surmountable obstacles remain. Successful EU enlargement would serve numerous enduring US interests, and Washington has a window of opportunity, while pro-enlargement interest is high, to make a real difference in overcoming existing hurdles, eight of which are considered here.
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