by David A. Cooper
Like it or not, it is not smart for the United States to walk away from the JCPOA now, but nonproliferation can be strengthened by reemphasizing supply-side efforts to impede Iran from improving its nuclear and missile capabilities from within the JCPOA framework.
by Mikael Weissmann and Linus Hagström
The authors demonstrate exactly how North Korea has managed to circumvent even smart sanctions, discussing the pros and cons of targeting particular additional areas today. While some are advisable, others can prove counterproductive.
by Diana Wueger
The INS Arihant is India’s first nuclear ballistic missile submarine, aiming to help provide a secure, assured second-strike capability. But contrary to prevailing wisdom, sea-based deterrence in South Asia is unlikely to contribute significantly to strategic stability, and may even increase crisis instability and fuel the regional conventional and nuclear arms races already underway.
by Tommy Ross
The deputy assistant secretary of defense argues that security cooperation is often viewed as an episodic luxury or, conversely, a magical deux ex machina to solve intractable problems. Instead, security cooperation should be reconceptualized to effectively advance U.S. strategic aims.
A SPECIAL FEATURE
CHINA FACES THE FUTURE
by David M. Lampton
China under Xi Jinping appears headed toward one of two very different outcomes—strongman or disorder—each worrisome and enormously consequential. What are the roots of this uncertainty? How might the United States best respond?
by David Shambaugh
As diminishing economic returns have set in, China is approaching a series of turning points on its transformative path. If China stays on its current road, atrophy and the protracted political decline of the CCP would result, although not its collapse. There are, however, three alternative paths for China.
by Minxin Pei
The convergence of two trends—empowerment of society and regime decay—that could spell the end of one-party rule in China is just beginning. The end may not be imminent for the Party, but it has, in all probability, begun. A key indicator to watch will be the issue of designating Xi’s successor at the 19th National Congress in fall 2017.
by Orville Schell
We are witnessing history’s revenge, or more accurately, the revenge of distorted history. The CCP’s interpretation (its perception of unending victimization at the hands of foreigners) has made it push unrepentantly into the South and East China Sea, and reject the Hague ruling, to defend a sovereign claim that it alone imagines as part of its historical legacy.
by Jeffrey Wasserstrom
Historical analogies used for predictions are usually wrong, and two predictions from events in the Qing Dynasty—George Macartney’s attempt to establish full diplomatic relations between London and Beijing in 1793, and the Boxer Uprising in 1900—hold lessons for present possibilities.