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Can the Iron Dome Be Transmuted into a Golden Dome?

by Steve Fetter and David Wright

Israel’s apparent success in defending against Iranian ballistic missile attacks in 2024 has stimulated renewed interest in missile defense. This experience, however, has little or no relevance to defending against long-range nuclear missiles, which would be equipped with countermeasures and require different defensive systems. There remains no basis for believing an effective defense is possible against long-range nuclear-armed missiles.

European Deterrence at a Crossroads: French and British Nuclear Options

by Astrid Chevreuil

The war in Ukraine and Donald Trump’s second term have intensified European conversations about diversifying nuclear options. The two established European nuclear powers have a valuable opportunity to create additional nuclear security guarantees for their European allies and reinforce the long-term credibility and resilience of Europe’s collective security framework.

Winning the Tech War

America's Advantages: Contending with China's Tech Rise

by Andrew Kennedy

While the US remains an impressive leader in many regards, China’s recent emergence as a technology power is nothing short of remarkable. The good news is that the US has three distinctive strengths that China has no chance of replicating in the foreseeable future; the bad news is that the US has neglected these strengths in recent years—a neglect poised to become more pronounced in the years to come.

Winning the Defining Contest: The US-China Artificial Intelligence Race

by Brandon Kirk Williams

Two events in the waning months of 2022 inaugurated a new era of US-China artificial intelligence and innovation competition, the defining geopolitical contest of the twenty-first century. What is at stake? And what should the United States do to preserve preeminence in this defining contest in the decades ahead?

Provocations

Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition

by Richard Fontaine and Gibbs McKinley

Policymakers should focus on these six “global swing states” that will together exert disproportionate influence over the future of international order. That requires the United States to deal with each, not simply as a pawn in great-power competition, but as an important country in their own right with interests that differ from, but can ultimately align with, those of the US.

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Iran's Strategic Crossroads: Options Beyond the Axis?

by Mahsa Rouhi

Events of 2023-2024, culminating with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, have brought Iran’s regional strategy—a triad of ballistic missile capabilities, nuclear latency, and a decentralized network of regional armed partners—to a moment of reckoning. Will Tehran double down on support for the “Axis of Resistance,” or pivot toward regional diplomacy and economic normalization? The answer will define a new phase in Middle East geopolitics.

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China's Strategic Calculus: It's Not Just About Economics

by Gangsheng Bao

Beijing’s strategic decisions, such as its response to US tariffs, often confound Western policymakers and analysts, risking dangerous miscalculations, because of the unique logic of China’s political system. The key to understanding China’s behavior is understanding five key strategic considerations that this political system shapes for Beijing.

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Surprising Stability in the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Since 2012

by Duan Xiaolin and Hao Yufan

Since 2012, the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dispute has surprisingly stabilized, with Tokyo and Beijing both taking steps to reduce tensions. Although the risk of territorial crisis remains, overlooking three elements of Beijing’s restraint—tamping down on popular nationalism, limiting escalatory posture, and prioritizing economic development—could lead to misunderstanding China’s overall strategy.

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Protecting Undersea Cables and South Korea's Role

by Amy Paik

The growing frequency of high-profile undersea cable disruptions have exposed the extent to which global connectivity hinges on their integrity and vulnerabilities. Despite their strategic significance, these cables remain insufficiently protected. South Korea, home to one of the world’s largest fiber-optic cable manufacturers and consistent with its vision to become a global pivotal state, is uniquely positioned to spearhead efforts in advancing undersea cable governance.

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Behind the Headlines

The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn't Work

by Samuel Seitz and Caitlin Talmadge

Do “madman” tactics yield foreign policy success? The historical record, both before Trump’s presidency and during it, demonstrates that madman tactics fail to strengthen deterrence or generate bargaining leverage with either peer competitors or “rogue states” for three reasons. From our Fall 2020 issue.

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The Misunderstood Roots of International Order—And Why They Matter Again

by James Goldgeier

It is easy to forget that the founders of the postwar order did not initially build it for the Cold War, but to constrain what they believed were the root causes of political and economic catastrophes: hyper-nationalism and protectionist trade policies. Now, those threats are back, not just elsewhere in the world, but in US policies themselves. From our Fall 2018 issue.

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China's Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan

by M. Taylor Fravel

What political, military, and economic lessons might China be learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global responses to the war? How might these assessments influence China’s decision to use force against Taiwan? And given these lessons, what other actions might lead Beijing to rely on the use of force against the island? From our Fall 2023 issue.

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Eyes Wide Open: Strategic Elite Views of South Korea’s Nuclear Options

by Victor D. Cha

Does South Korea sit on the nuclear precipice? An echo chamber in Washington and Seoul about South Korea’s nuclear ambitions has been informed by a handful of recent public opinion polls. The author both analyzes a wider set of these polls and presents the findings from the first American multi-question polling of South Korean strategic elites on the nuclear question, finding far more caution, and resistance, to South Korea going nuclear…but not unconditionally. From our Summer 2024 issue.

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Nervous Allies and Trump: Nuclear Lessons from NATO

by Richard K. Betts

A US ally's need to balance conflicting pressures—depend on a risky US nuclear guarantee or pay a high price to escape—resurrects the appeal that NATO has managed over seven decades: some form of sharing control of nuclear weapons. But what would "sharing" mean for countries like South Korea today? Is nuclear sharing strategically serious or cosmetic? From our Winter 2025 issue.

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Upsetting the Balance: Why Russia Chose Hamas Over Israel

by Kimberly Marten

Immediately after the horrific Hamas terrorist onslaught against Israel, Putin’s Russia seemed to abandon Israel in favor of Hamas, bringing Russia’s relationship with Israel to a post-Cold War low. Why? There are at least three possibilities, including one that is frequently overlooked: that Putin recognizes the power balance between Russia and Iran has shifted in Tehran’s favor. From our Fall 2024 issue.

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