China's New Economic Weapons
by Evan S. Medeiros and Andrew Polk
China has been expanding its economic coercion tools since 2018—documented by the authors in a comprehensive dataset—deploying a new collection of legal and regulatory instruments, effectively acting as "precision-guided economic munitions." Now, in response to the Trump administration's actions, Beijing may be on the threshold of a further evolution, weaponizing its global economic connections in an increasingly asymmetric manner.
Pathways to Protraction: Rethinking US-China Conflict
by Sheena Chestnut Greitens
Although planners and commentators have mostly focused on prevailing in the early stages of any potential conflict, war with China is likely to be much more prolonged, leading to potentially lethal gaps in capabilities, authorities, and plans in a crisis. What would progress in planning for protraction look like? Six key questions will shape the contours of potential conflict with China.
Conquering Taiwan by Other Means: China's Expanding Coercive Options
by Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara
A Chinese seizure of Taiwan without invasion is rarely debated but deserves more scrutiny than it receives. Beijing has, or will soon have, a variety of coercive tools at its disposal, and the policy discourse has not adequately considered why or how China might seek to annex Taiwan by means short of an all-out invasion. How could Beijing try to achieve these goals?
Taiwan: Defending a Non-Vital US Interest
by Michael D. Swaine
Taiwan is not a vital interest of the United States that would justify US efforts to defend the island at all costs or even to treat it as a formal security partner. The United States should start gradually transitioning to an explicit policy of conditional but significant support for Taiwan that removes the possibility of going to war with China over the island.
Considering a US-Supported Self-Defense Option for Taiwan
by Charles L. Glaser
The risk of a war with China over Taiwan is not a vital US interest, leading to a search for alternative US strategies. The United States should end its commitment to use force to come to Taiwan's defense, but continue to help Taiwan defend itself by providing arms and training, resembling the US strategy in Ukraine.
Provocations
Nervous Allies and Trump: Nuclear Lessons from NATO
by Richard K. Betts
A US ally's need to balance conflicting pressures—depend on a risky US nuclear guarantee or pay a high price to escape—resurrects the appeal that NATO has managed over seven decades: some form of sharing control of nuclear weapons. But what would "sharing" mean for countries like South Korea today? Is nuclear sharing strategically serious or cosmetic?
The New Nuclear Sufficiency and Risk Reduction
by Heather Williams
A change is coming to America's strategic posture, but what would a sufficient arsenal look like? Although a nuclear buildup could create risks of arms racing, escalation and nuclear use, and weakening nuclear order, there are also risks of not changing, such as further regional aggression and allied proliferation. Fortunately, changes to a new nuclear sufficiency can also create opportunities for risk reduction tailored to a competitive, not cooperative, strategic environment.
Modernizing US Indian Ocean Strategy
by Peter Dean, Michael Green, and Alice Nason
The Indian Ocean region has becoming dangerously contested by Beijing's regional ambitions and Iranian irredintism. The next decade demands a new US approach with its allies and partners built on six key pillars embracing asymmetric advantages and centering cooperation within the Quad as well as with India, while expanding infrastructure development and democratic resilience in small Indian Ocean states.
A US Strategy for Advancing EU Enlargement
by Nicholas Lokker
There are currently ten official or potential candidates for EU membership, yet daunting although surmountable obstacles remain. Successful EU enlargement would serve numerous enduring US interests, and Washington has a window of opportunity, while pro-enlargement interest is high, to make a real difference in overcoming existing hurdles, eight of which are considered here.
A Neglected Region? The Strategic Value of the South Atlantic
by Zeno Leoni, Joao Vitor Tossini, William de Sousa Moreira, and Sarah Tzinieris
Those areas of the Atlantic Ocean region below the equator between Africa and South America include over eighty countries, all part of the Global South. Otherwise known as the South Atlantic, it is a highly strategic region in its own right, underpins the Indo-Pacific as the world's two largest maritime orders, and is neglected at the level of grand strategy.
Behind the Headlines
Insights from previous issues
The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn't Work
by Samuel Seitz and Caitlin Talmadge
Do “madman” tactics yield foreign policy success? The historical record, both before Trump’s presidency and during it, demonstrates that madman tactics fail to strengthen deterrence or generate bargaining leverage with either peer competitors or “rogue states” for three reasons. From our Fall 2020 issue.
The Misunderstood Roots of International Order—And Why They Matter Again
by James Goldgeier
It is easy to forget that the founders of the postwar order did not initially build it for the Cold War, but to constrain what they believed were the root causes of political and economic catastrophes: hyper-nationalism and protectionist trade policies. Now, those threats are back, not just elsewhere in the world, but in US policies themselves. From our Fall 2018 issue.
China's Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan
by M. Taylor Fravel
What political, military, and economic lessons might China be learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global responses to the war? How might these assessments influence China’s decision to use force against Taiwan? And given these lessons, what other actions might lead Beijing to rely on the use of force against the island? From our Fall 2023 issue.
Eyes Wide Open: Strategic Elite Views of South Korea’s Nuclear Options
by Victor D. Cha
Does South Korea sit on the nuclear precipice? An echo chamber in Washington and Seoul about South Korea’s nuclear ambitions has been informed by a handful of recent public opinion polls. The author both analyzes a wider set of these polls and presents the findings from the first American multi-question polling of South Korean strategic elites on the nuclear question, finding far more caution, and resistance, to South Korea going nuclear…but not unconditionally. From our Summer 2024 issue.
Upsetting the Balance: Why Russia Chose Hamas Over Israel
by Kimberly Marten
Immediately after the horrific Hamas terrorist onslaught against Israel, Putin’s Russia seemed to abandon Israel in favor of Hamas, bringing Russia’s relationship with Israel to a post-Cold War low. Why? There are at least three possibilities, including one that is frequently overlooked: that Putin recognizes the power balance between Russia and Iran has shifted in Tehran’s favor. From our Fall 2024 issue.
Managing the Dilemmas of Alliance Burden Sharing
by Brian Blankenship
Burden sharing is a double-edged sword; allies that become more self-reliant also become more capable of spurning Washington. Although US allies in Western Europe might be better positioned to fend for themselves than those in the Indo-Pacific, successfully encouraging burden sharing in Europe also poses a greater risk of alliance decoupling. To manage these dilemmas, the US has three policy options. From our Spring 2024 issue.
