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Nuclear Asia?
Further Enhancing US Extended Deterrence for South Korea
by Kyung Suk Lee and Bee Yun Jo
Voices in Seoul continue to question the credibility of US extended deterrence given North Korean nuclear advancements. The authors argue for advancing conventional-nuclear integration between the two allies to enhance extended deterrence. Otherwise, given the deterioration of Washington's defense commitments, advocacy for an independent South Korean nuclear arsenal is likely to rise.
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Japan's Nuclear Balance: Deterrence and Disarmament
by Ryoya Ishimoto
Japan has struggled to strike a balance between nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Since the 1950s, Tokyo has developed its nuclear policy by prioritizing issues according to the prevailing international security environment. Today, that environment necessitates prioritizing nuclear deterrence, but history has shown that these goals can coexist and gradually advance in tandem.
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Escalation Risks Rising? Airpower in Kargil and Pahalgam
by Sumit Ganguly and Spenser A. Warren
In the 1999 Kargil conflict, the Indian Air Force in the end acquitted itself admirably; in the 2025 Pahalgam case, the IAF's performance appeared to be lackluster at best. What explains the markedly different outcomes of the use of airpower? And what strategic lessons did India learn? One to watch is New Delhi likely concluded that, next time, they must escalate to strikes against military targets at the onset of hostilities, running greater Pakistani miscalculation risks.
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The Future of Intelligence
The War on Open-Source Intelligence
by Thomas Colley and Huw Dylan
Open-source intelligence (OSINT) investigations have proven extremely effective over the last decade to expose military aggression, war crimes, human rights violations, and corruption worldwide. But actions generate reactions, in this case a seven-pronged counter-offensive to attack and undermine the transparency industry.
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Recalibrating the Five Eyes Alliance
by Mitchell Gallagher
The Five Eyes Alliance, long lauded as a paragon of intelligence cooperation, is at a crossroads: innovate or become obsolete. A larger circle of members could infuse vital new capabilities to a historical alliance challenged by three interlocking forces—geography, transnationalism, and new technologies—but such a move risks diluting the hard-won trust that has been the alliance's cornerstone since 1946. Phased selective enlargement could provide an answer.
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Provocations
Trump's Nuclear Views: Understanding the US Strikes on Iran
by Rachel Elizabeth Whitlark
Looking back before he became president, Donald Trump gave us reason to suspect that he would consider and potentially use force against Iran's nuclear program. Looking back not only helps us better contextualize this summer's strikes; it is worth paying careful attention to what other future leaders globally think about nuclear weapons in world politics long before they enter national executive office to help understand potential future counterproliferation events.
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The Old Logic Behind China's New Economic Weapons
by Viking Bohman, Audrye Wong, and Victor A. Ferguson
When, how, and why does China use economic sanctions? The authors documented over 200 individual cases imposed between 2010 and 2025, concluding that contrary to a wave of recent analyses, Beijing is using both old and new sanctions methods. When, how, and why is China using this combination of old and new coercive economic tactics?
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Small Modular Reactors: The Coming Wave of Nuclear Energy Competition
by Lami Kim
Nuclear energy is making a strong comeback, with small modular reactors emerging as a key technology, yet the US is already falling behind Russia and China in their development of reactors and fuel supply. What can the US do to reverse this trend in a competition with significant first-mover advantages for global nuclear governance and geopolitical influence?
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India-US Relations: Pakistan Re-emerges in Trump 2.0
by Harsh V. Pant and Vivek Mishra
Trump's opportunistic meddling in the India-Pakistan conflict since May this year has reflected a pivot in US Pakistan policy, which New Delhi worries may alter the axial relations with Washington cultivated over the last two decades. Three variables will determine the impact of Trump's Pakistan outreach on the future India-US relationship.
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