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Ukraine After Four Years
NATO Did Not Cause Putin's Imperial War
by James Goldgeier and Brian D. Taylor
Were the United States and NATO enlargement to blame for Russia’s invasions of Ukraine? The authors argue that NATO was just one irritant among many in the US-Russian relationship; that Ukraine was not close to joining NATO in 2021 when Putin made the decision for full-scale war; and that Russian fear of NATO was not a major factor in the march to war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, they conclude, was primarily about Putin’s imperial beliefs, not great power politics.
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Who Was Afraid of Russia? The Forgotten Evidence of the 1990s
by Deborah Boucoyannis
When interest in NATO enlargement did rise in the 1990s, it had little to do with threats from Russia but because a military alliance was framed as consolidating new democracies. The 1990s framing only worked because Russia was hoping to join NATO—a condition which does not operate today. The continued prospect of NATO accession for Ukraine risks not only perpetuating a war devastating Ukraine, but a pan-European one where there can be no winner.
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Ukraine and the End of Peacemaking
by Nik Hynek, Oliver P. Richmond, and Michal Senk
The war in Ukraine has become a barometer for the worldwide transition toward an authoritarian international practice in which peace is recoded as coercive management rather than rights-based settlement. Most important here is the US transformation from the principal architect of a liberal order to a revisionist disruptive power. Unless a US reversal occurs, it is likely the arrangement eventually reached in Ukraine will exemplify an authoritarian logic of conflict management.
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Russia's Foreign Policy After the Ukrainian Crisis
by Alexander Lukin and Vladimir Lukin
The former Russian ambassador to the United States and his son, both now professors in Moscow, argue that it is possible even now to look at what Russian foreign policy will be after the Ukraine crisis ends—a continuation of Russia’s historical existence where it seeks a better position within the world order, rather than trying to change it, and seeks normalized relations throughout the world, learning from China’s recent example.
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Japan and Taiwan
Japan's Taiwan Policy: Strategic Shift or Tactical Adaptation?
by Rena Sasaki
Has Japan’s more proactive approach toward Taiwan since 2021 constituted a fundamental strategic shift or a tactical adaptation within the constraints of not having formal diplomatic or military ties? The answer lies in a dual-track approach of state actions within non-traditional frameworks and non-state actors circumventing traditional diplomatic constraints as Taiwan occupies increasing centrality in Japanese security discourse.
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Enhancing US-Japan Allied Deterrence Across the Taiwan Strait
by Takuya Matsuda
Due to Japan’s proximity to Taiwan, a cross-Strait military conflict would be inseparable from Japan’s own territorial defense, but when and how Tokyo would intervene is highly contingent. The US-Japan alliance’s ongoing investments bolster deterrence of potential conflict, but there is a growing need for Washington to work much more closely with allies and partners for, among other things, gray zone tactics or in case of actual conflict.
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Provocations
Is There an American Way of War? Why the Answer Must Be No
by Michael O'Hanlon
Over fifty years after an esteemed military historian coined the phrase “American way of war,” O’Hanlon reexamines the wartime track record of the United States, focusing on seven existential conflicts. He concludes there is not a clear-cut American way of war, partially because of the military efforts of the last eighty years, with very real implications for today.
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