Provocations

The Emerging Global Middle Class—So What?

by Mathew Burrows
Over the next few decades, a majority of the world’s population won’t be impoverished, and the middle class will become the most important social and economic sector in a majority of countries around the world, not just in the West. The principal author of the National Intelligence Council’s last three Global Trends publications argues that this represents a tectonic shift that we’re only beginning to come to grips with. Is a middle-class world sustainable?

Modi’s Strategic Choice: How to Respond to Terrorism from Pakistan

by George Perkovich and Toby Dalton
How will Indian decision makers deter and/or respond to the next terrorist attack emanating from Pakistan? The odds-on favorite among defense analysts in Delhi is air power. Unfortunately, the attraction of limited, precise air-borne strikes is offset significantly by inadequacies and risks that could even make them counterproductive.

Ukraine, Security Assurances, and Nonproliferation

by Robert Einhorn
The failure of 1994 security assurances to Ukraine has been widely viewed as a serious blow to global nuclear nonproliferation efforts. Yet, a closer look at the case and its real-world impact suggests that the damage may be much less than some observers have predicted or feared.

The Saudi Nuclear Genie Is Out

by Yoel Guzanky
For years, Saudi Arabia has had a nuclear hedging strategy, building up nuclear infrastructure to keep future options open. The nuclear agreement with Iran will not end the Saudi option; paradoxically, it may actually increase the probability of a nascent, slow-motion Middle Eastern nuclear arms race.

Determining U.S. Commitments in Afghanistan

by Stephen Watts and Sean Mann
Despite President Obama’s commitment to withdraw all but a minor residual force by the end of 2016, Afghanistan conditionally deserves continued U.S. support. A sustainable long-term commitment requires rethinking how the United States conducts military interventions to support fragile states.

R.A.D. (REASSURANCE, ASSURANCE, & DETERRENCE) IN ASIA

Spring 2015  |  Volume 38  |  Number 1

Uncharted Waters: Extended Deterrence and Maritime Disputes

by Mira Rapp Hooper
The U.S. nuclear umbrella is predominantly designed to deter attacks against treaty allies, but may not be finely tuned enough to engage either potential conflicts around island disputes or a potential challenger who is not a full-blown adversary. Here’s why and what can be done about it.

Assuring Japan and South Korea in the Second Nuclear Age

by David Santoro and John K. Warden
The contemporary multipolar nuclear order is more complex and unnerving to many U.S. allies. To fully assure its two Northeast Asian treaty allies, the United States must convince Japan and South Korea that extended deterrence works simultaneously for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries through a handful of key challenges and opportunities.

Japan’s Pushback of China

by Jeffrey Hornung
Despite its reputation as a reactive state, Japan since 2010 has proactively sought to politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily expand its strategic space against an increasingly assertive China. Tokyo’s bipartisan efforts, which are different from anything Japan has ever done, have far-reaching implications.

Deterring without Dominance: Discouraging Chinese Adventurism under Austerity

by Eric Heginbotham and Jacob L. Heim
U.S. force posture in Asia does not address the primary challenges we face today. Neither would offshore balancing nor dominance, but a new strategy of active denial would do more to assure U.S. partners with a more resilient, cost-effective forward presence while reducing crisis pre-emption incentives.

 

Behind the Headlines

Afghanistan’s Legacy: Emerging Lessons of an Ongoing War

by Stephen Biddle
In an important sense, emerging debates on the war’s lessons are premature. The war in Afghanistan is not over; nor is it ending anytime soon. Nevertheless, before conventional wisdom consolidates, two observations on counterinsurgency are worth considering now: whether it can work and how to approach governance reform.

China’s Free Trade Agreement Strategies

by Guoyou Song and Wen Jin Yuan
Many in China fear that the United States’ Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) framework seeks to coopt or destroy regional economic cooperation, leading Beijing to devise strategies to respond, including constructing its own regional web of FTAs or even joining TPP itself.

Rebalancing to Asia with an Insecure China

Ely Ratner
The U.S. shift toward Asia should and will continue, but Washington must both account for an insecure China for rebalancing to achieve its intended aims and must sustain its commitment to intensive high-level engagement with Beijing to cope with inevitable crises.

Unlocking the Alawite Conundrum in Syria

by Jomana Qaddour
Alawites surely recognize that their long-term interests do not lie with the Assad regime, but they are frightened by the precedent set by de-Ba’athification in Iraq. The opposition and international community must acknowledge four major issues to help assuage their concerns and construct a post-Assad Syrian state.

Prague as the Nonproliferation Pivot

by C. Raja Mohan
The Prague Agenda was the last gasp of arms control theology from another era. Washington must recognize that the rest of the world does not view WMD proliferation in as dire terms as it does, while nonproliferation will have to come to terms with the new constraints on the exercise of U.S. power.

Sifting through Interdependence

by Thomas Wright
States have increasingly begun to hedge against the risks and volatility of interdependence. With these efforts likely to accelerate over the next decade, how should integration and interdependence be strategically managed--encouraging positive elements like trade ties while mitigating negative ones--to help produce a stronger and more sustainable international order?