by Mathew Burrows
Over the next few decades, a majority of the world’s population won’t be impoverished, and the middle class will become the most important social and economic sector in a majority of countries around the world, not just in the West. The principal author of the National Intelligence Council’s last three Global Trends publications argues that this represents a tectonic shift that we’re only beginning to come to grips with. Is a middle-class world sustainable?
by George Perkovich and Toby Dalton
How will Indian decision makers deter and/or respond to the next terrorist attack emanating from Pakistan? The odds-on favorite among defense analysts in Delhi is air power. Unfortunately, the attraction of limited, precise air-borne strikes is offset significantly by inadequacies and risks that could even make them counterproductive.
by Robert Einhorn
The failure of 1994 security assurances to Ukraine has been widely viewed as a serious blow to global nuclear nonproliferation efforts. Yet, a closer look at the case and its real-world impact suggests that the damage may be much less than some observers have predicted or feared.
by Vipin Narang
Regional nuclear powers have made very different nuclear strategy choices than the Cold War superpowers did. Historically, these different strategies have been associated with distinct types of risk. Which nuclear strategies might North Korea and Iran adopt? The answer should affect the policy choices we make.
by Yoel Guzanky
For years, Saudi Arabia has had a nuclear hedging strategy, building up nuclear infrastructure to keep future options open. The nuclear agreement with Iran will not end the Saudi option; paradoxically, it may actually increase the probability of a nascent, slow-motion Middle Eastern nuclear arms race.
by Stephen Watts and Sean Mann
Despite President Obama’s commitment to withdraw all but a minor residual force by the end of 2016, Afghanistan conditionally deserves continued U.S. support. A sustainable long-term commitment requires rethinking how the United States conducts military interventions to support fragile states.
R.A.D. (REASSURANCE, ASSURANCE, & DETERRENCE) IN ASIA
by Mira Rapp Hooper
The U.S. nuclear umbrella is predominantly designed to deter attacks against treaty allies, but may not be finely tuned enough to engage either potential conflicts around island disputes or a potential challenger who is not a full-blown adversary. Here’s why and what can be done about it.
by David Santoro and John K. Warden
The contemporary multipolar nuclear order is more complex and unnerving to many U.S. allies. To fully assure its two Northeast Asian treaty allies, the United States must convince Japan and South Korea that extended deterrence works simultaneously for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries through a handful of key challenges and opportunities.
by Jeffrey Hornung
Despite its reputation as a reactive state, Japan since 2010 has proactively sought to politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily expand its strategic space against an increasingly assertive China. Tokyo’s bipartisan efforts, which are different from anything Japan has ever done, have far-reaching implications.
by Eric Heginbotham and Jacob L. Heim
U.S. force posture in Asia does not address the primary challenges we face today. Neither would offshore balancing nor dominance, but a new strategy of active denial would do more to assure U.S. partners with a more resilient, cost-effective forward presence while reducing crisis pre-emption incentives.