China’s America Policy: Back to the Future
by Thomas Fingar and David M. Lampton
US-China ties are worse than they have been since the early 1950s, and will likely deteriorate further unless both sides take steps neither is yet willing or able to. To achieve wary coexistence and productive cooperation requires a deeper understanding of China’s goals, fears and behavior. A good place to begin is by acknowledging that much of China’s American policy harkens back to earlier eras—an old mindset sacrificing growth to reduce vulnerability to external interference.
Defending Taiwan: But…What Are the Costs?
by Rachel Metz and Erik Sand
So far, the public debate about the US government’s increasing commitment to defend Taiwan has largely neglected a systematic analysis of its costs, five of which are laid out here in order to equip the American people and policymakers with a more thorough framework to understand the highest-stakes foreign policy question of our time.
The Implications of Contemporary US-China
"Hypercompetition"
by Ian Bowers and Øystein Tunsjø
Competition between the US and China is something fundamentally new. It is not rules-based, nor Cold War-style, nor akin to pre-WWII great-power competition. The authors apply a business strategy concept of “hypercompetition” to the relationship—explaining how dynamic factors such as interdependence and rapid technological development contribute to constant disequilibrium—and identify four key areas of strategic policy flexibility needed to manage the instability.
De-Risking Is Not Enough: Tech Denial Toward
China Is Needed
by Brad Glosserman
The US and its partners should embrace a more aggressive and comprehensive policy of new and emerging technology denial toward China. Although the Biden administration initially seemed to understand this, strategic trade controls have reverted to their Cold War focus on military applications. The new and emerging technology race is too close and the stakes too high for business-as-usual economic integration.
Modernizing Deterrence
Comprehensive Extended Deterrence with the
ROK: Integrating Economics
by Sung-han Kim and Hyun Ji Rim
Building on the April 2023 Washington Declaration that strengthened the US extended nuclear deterrence mechanism, South Korea’s former National Security Adviser coauthors a call to employ “extended economic deterrence.” By combining the two elements, the authors propose elevating the concept of “comprehensive extended deterrence” to a main pillar of the US-ROK alliance, and how best to shore it up.
A Tripolar Nuclear World: Challenges to Strategic
Stability
by Robert Litwak
The near-collapse of treaty-based arms control, emergence of new domains and technologies, and an arising two-peer nuclear challenge are exacerbating both arms race instability and crisis instability. In the new tripolar nuclear world, these risks cannot be resolved, but they can be managed—but only if the three powers acknowledge their mutual interest in halting a destabilizing spiral into unconstrained competition.
The Return of Crisis Diplomacy: Ukraine, Taiwan and Beyond
by Ron Gurantz
As competition with China and Russia intensifies, crisis diplomacy will likely continue to reemerge as a major concern. If war does occur in a place like Taiwan, crisis diplomacy could determine whether allies and the public support military action. In competing to control the narrative, the US will want to remember lessons from Ukraine, but the possibility of direct American intervention means it will also want to revisit the lessons of Cuba.
Provocations
Putting the Trans-Pacific Partnership Back on the
Table
by David H. Bearce and Seungbin Park
Without the Trans-Pacific Partnership or its successor, the CPTPP, the US lacks a viable tactical instrument to execute its Indo-Pacific pivot. New survey data, however, shows that anticipated domestic opposition may be reduced, even among partisan Republicans and citizens without a college degree, by reframing benefits as dealing with inflation and countering a rising China.
India’s A La Carte Minilateralism: AUKUS and the Quad
by Sarah Tzinieris, Rishika Chauhan and Eirini Athanasiadou
Minilateral frameworks like AUKUS and the Quad are problematic for India. Delhi wants to avoid provoking Beijing’s ire, driving it closer to Russia and Pakistan and reducing trade, while also being concerned with its own security and shaping a just, inclusive regional order in ways which will promote its status and protect its identity as a regional networker. Taken together, Washington cannot assume Delhi’s long-term support, especially for AUKUS but even for the Quad.
Behind the Headlines
Insights from previous issues
America's Role in a Post-American Middle East
by Dalia Dassa Kaye
Perceptions of whether the United States is “staying or going” in the Middle East are
increasingly divorced from realities on the ground. The US is both engaged in the region and seeking to reduce its direct commitments, but American regional predominance, if it ever really existed, is certainly now over. So, what is the American role in a post-American Middle East? From our Spring 2022 issue.
How Putin's Regime Survivalism Drives Russian Aggression
by Aleksandar Matovski
Geopolitical and ideological motivations cannot explain the timing, among other factors, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead, regime preservation is both often overlooked in Western debates and has implications for the Kremlin’s future behavior, escalation risks, negotiation strategies, and war objectives. Ignoring this self-preservation motive could have catastrophic consequences. From our Summer 2023 issue.
Putin’s Choices: Explaining Russian Foreign Policy and Intervention in Ukraine
by Kimberly Marten
The upshot of the Russian system under Putin’s reign is that a new version of the Cold War in Europe—this time without ideology—will stay with us for the foreseeable future. But what is it about Putin, the man, and/or the overall nature of the Russian system that makes Moscow’s moves so unpredictable? Kimberly Marten, Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and faculty member of the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, explores. From our Summer 2015 issue.
Lessons in Sanction-Proofing from Russia
by Caileigh Glenn
After Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, Moscow attempted to “sanctions-proof” its economy. Although sanctions alone remain unlikely to compel a change in behavior, the strength of the US dollar, the reach of multilateral sanctions, and the speed with which sanctions were imposed made it difficult for sanctions-proofing efforts to insulate Russia from sanctions’ effects. From our Spring 2023 issue.
China's Economic Statecraft: Lessons Learned from Ukraine
by Audrye Wong
Relative to Moscow, Beijing is arguably both more sensitive to and more resilient against US economic pressure. While China is vulnerable to US financial power, and is likely to remain so for the near to medium term, Beijing is likely to take three steps, based on its lessons drawn from the war in Ukraine, to attempt to weaken US and allied leverage in any potential future crisis. From our Spring 2023 issue.
Still Getting Asia Wrong: No “Contain China” Coalition Exists
by David C. Kang
For decades, scholars have been claiming that Chinese power is, will, or should cause East Asian countries to balance it. Yet, these countries have steadily reduced their proportional defense spending, are increasing their economic relations with China, and are building regional multilateral institutions with Beijing. US strategy needs to be rethought: there is little evidence any East Asian country would join even an incipient containment coalition against China. From our Winter 2023 issue.