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Nuclear Asia?

Further Enhancing US Extended Deterrence for South Korea

by Kyung Suk Lee and Bee Yun Jo

Voices in Seoul continue to question the credibility of US extended deterrence given North Korean nuclear advancements. The authors argue for advancing conventional-nuclear integration between the two allies to enhance extended deterrence. Otherwise, given the deterioration of Washington's defense commitments, advocacy for an independent South Korean nuclear arsenal is likely to rise.

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Japan's Nuclear Balance: Deterrence and Disarmament

by Ryoya Ishimoto

Japan has struggled to strike a balance between nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Since the 1950s, Tokyo has developed its nuclear policy by prioritizing issues according to the prevailing international security environment. Today, that environment necessitates prioritizing nuclear deterrence, but history has shown that these goals can coexist and gradually advance in tandem.

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Escalation Risks Rising? Airpower in Kargil and Pahalgam

by Sumit Ganguly and Spenser A. Warren

In the 1999 Kargil conflict, the Indian Air Force in the end acquitted itself admirably; in the 2025 Pahalgam case, the IAF's performance appeared to be lackluster at best. What explains the markedly different outcomes of the use of airpower? And what strategic lessons did India learn? One to watch is New Delhi likely concluded that, next time, they must escalate to strikes against military targets at the onset of hostilities, running greater Pakistani miscalculation risks.

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The Future of Intelligence

The War on Open-Source Intelligence

by Thomas Colley and Huw Dylan

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) investigations have proven extremely effective over the last decade to expose military aggression, war crimes, human rights violations, and corruption worldwide. But actions generate reactions, in this case a seven-pronged counter-offensive to attack and undermine the transparency industry.

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Recalibrating the Five Eyes Alliance

by Mitchell Gallagher

The Five Eyes Alliance, long lauded as a paragon of intelligence cooperation, is at a crossroads: innovate or become obsolete. A larger circle of members could infuse vital new capabilities to a historical alliance challenged by three interlocking forces—geography, transnationalism, and new technologies—but such a move risks diluting the hard-won trust that has been the alliance's cornerstone since 1946. Phased selective enlargement could provide an answer.

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Provocations

Trump's Nuclear Views: Understanding the US Strikes on Iran

by Rachel Elizabeth Whitlark

Looking back before he became president, Donald Trump gave us reason to suspect that he would consider and potentially use force against Iran's nuclear program. Looking back not only helps us better contextualize this summer's strikes; it is worth paying careful attention to what other future leaders globally think about nuclear weapons in world politics long before they enter national executive office to help understand potential future counterproliferation events.

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The Old Logic Behind China's New Economic Weapons

by Viking Bohman, Audrye Wong, and Victor A. Ferguson

When, how, and why does China use economic sanctions? The authors documented over 200 individual cases imposed between 2010 and 2025, concluding that contrary to a wave of recent analyses, Beijing is using both old and new sanctions methods. When, how, and why is China using this combination of old and new coercive economic tactics?

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Small Modular Reactors: The Coming Wave of Nuclear Energy Competition

by Lami Kim

Nuclear energy is making a strong comeback, with small modular reactors emerging as a key technology, yet the US is already falling behind Russia and China in their development of reactors and fuel supply. What can the US do to reverse this trend in a competition with significant first-mover advantages for global nuclear governance and geopolitical influence?

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India-US Relations: Pakistan Re-emerges in Trump 2.0

by Harsh V. Pant and Vivek Mishra

Trump's opportunistic meddling in the India-Pakistan conflict since May this year has reflected a pivot in US Pakistan policy, which New Delhi worries may alter the axial relations with Washington cultivated over the last two decades. Three variables will determine the impact of Trump's Pakistan outreach on the future India-US relationship.

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TWQ Talks

Behind the Headlines

The Misunderstood Roots of International Order—And Why They Matter Again

by James Goldgeier

It is easy to forget that the founders of the postwar order did not initially build it for the Cold War, but to constrain what they believed were the root causes of political and economic catastrophes: hyper-nationalism and protectionist trade policies. Now, those threats are back, not just elsewhere in the world, but in US policies themselves. From our Fall 2018 issue.

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Global Swing States and the New Great Power Competition

by Richard Fontaine and Gibbs McKinley

Policymakers should focus on these six "global swing states" that will together exert disproportionate influence over the future of international order. That requires the United States to deal with each, not simply as a pawn in great-power competition, but as an important country in their own right with interests that differ from, but can ultimately align with, those of the US. From our Summer 2025 issue.

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European Deterrence at a Crossroads: French and British Nuclear Options

by Astrid Chevreuil

The war in Ukraine and Donald Trump's second term have intensified European conversations about diversifying nuclear options. The two established European nuclear powers have a valuable opportunity to create additional nuclear security guarantees for their European allies and reinforce the long-term credibility and resilience of Europe's collective security framework. From our Summer 2025 issue.

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China's Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan

by M. Taylor Fravel

What political, military, and economic lessons might China be learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global responses to the war? How might these assessments influence China’s decision to use force against Taiwan? And given these lessons, what other actions might lead Beijing to rely on the use of force against the island? From our Fall 2023 issue.

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Eyes Wide Open: Strategic Elite Views of South Korea’s Nuclear Options

by Victor D. Cha

Does South Korea sit on the nuclear precipice? An echo chamber in Washington and Seoul about South Korea’s nuclear ambitions has been informed by a handful of recent public opinion polls. The author both analyzes a wider set of these polls and presents the findings from the first American multi-question polling of South Korean strategic elites on the nuclear question, finding far more caution, and resistance, to South Korea going nuclear…but not unconditionally. From our Summer 2024 issue.

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Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That's the Wrong Question

by Samual Charap and Miranda Priebe

Four questionable assumptions about the Russian threat to NATO allies have led to a focus on planning for opportunistic Russian aggression after the Ukraine war has ended. This mistaken focus actually exacerbates two more likely pathways to NATO-Russia conflict. The US and its allies should optimize their posture and strategy around these more likely routes, not a single, highly unlikely scenario.

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