Upsetting the Balance: Why Russia Chose Hamas over Israel
by Kimberly Marten
Immediately after the horrific Hamas terrorist onslaught against Israel, Putin’s Russia seemed to favor Hamas, bringing Russia’s relationship with Israel to a post-Cold War low. Why? There are at least three possibilities, including one frequently overlooked: that Putin recognizes the power balance between Russia and Iran has shifted in Tehran’s favor.
Russian Nuclear Weapons in Belarus? Motivations and Consequences
by Liviu Horovitz and Lydia Wachs
By summer 2023, nuclear weapons appeared to have returned to Belarus. What drives Minsk’s desire to have Russian nuclear weapons deployed on its territory? Why would Putin, long critical of NATO’s nuclear sharing, decide to deploy nuclear capabilities abroad? And who retains decision-making authority over these weapons? There are benefits and risks to both countries, but renewed Russian nuclear risk-taking should raise concerns for policymakers and analysts.
Starving Russia’s War Economy
by Noel Foster
For the first time in its history, Moscow has embarked on a major war without a decisive advantage in manpower—labor shortages are the Achilles heel of the Russian war effort. Those who wish to defeat Russia should think the unthinkable, or the politically controversial, and consider actually opening their doors to select workers from Russia and the former Soviet republics.
Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That’s the Wrong Question
by Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe
Four questionable assumptions about the Russian threat to NATO allies have led to focus on planning for opportunistic Russian aggression after the Ukraine war has ended. This mistaken focus actually exacerbates two more likely pathways to NATO-Russia conflict. The US and its allies should optimize their posture and strategy around these more likely routes, not a single, highly unlikely scenario.
Provocations
China’s US-Driven Middle East Strategy
by Jon B. Alterman
The Middle East has become increasingly important to China, but Beijing does not want to replace the US in the region. China does, however, want to advance its security at American expense. It is especially important for US policymakers to have a clearer understanding of what China is doing, and respond with a US strategy asymmetrically, recognizing enduring US strengths, advantages and interests.
Preventing Mass Atrocities with a Divided UN Security Council
by Anjali Dayal
It is in the US interest to help prevent mass atrocities, but what strategies are available as the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is in decline in an era of great-power conflict? Especially after Ukraine and Gaza, without appearing to be the key player, the US can and should support multilateral, regional and local diplomatic channels available outside the UN Security Council.
Hong Kong: Exporting International Law with Chinese Characteristics
by Anouk Wear
After the 2020 National Security Law, the Hong Kong Special Administration Region passed new security legislation on March 19, 2024, titled the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance. The PRC’s legal maneuvers showcase how it is seeking to export its own vision of international law—one with “Chinese characteristics”—that reshapes and undermines the rules-based international order.
The Illusion of Germany’s Zeitenwende
by Rafał Ulatowski
Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Chancellor Scholz declared it a Zeitenwende, or turning point, for Germany. While many point to its strategic culture as the reason for subsequent skepticism and inertia, at least four other factors help explain why fulfilling the Chancellor’s promises will prove illusory, with far-reaching implications for Germany, the EU and the US.
Behind the Headlines
Insights from previous issues
China’s America Policy: Back to the Future
by Thomas Fingar and David M. Lampton
US-China ties are worse than they have been since the early 1950s, and will likely deteriorate further unless both sides take steps neither is yet willing or able to. To achieve wary coexistence and productive cooperation requires a deeper understanding of China’s goals, fears and behavior. A good place to begin is by acknowledging that much of China’s American policy harkens back to earlier eras—an old mindset sacrificing growth to reduce vulnerability to external interference. From our Winter 2024 issue.
China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan
by M. Taylor Fravel
What political, military and economic lessons might China be learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global responses to the war? How might these assessments influence China’s decision to use force against Taiwan? And given these lessons, what other actions might lead Beijing to rely on the use of force against the island? From our Fall 2023 issue.
Eyes Wide Open: Strategic Elite Views of South Korea’s Nuclear Options
by Victor D. Cha
Does South Korea sit on the nuclear precipice? An echo chamber in Washington and Seoul about South Korea’s nuclear ambitions has been informed by a handful of recent public opinion polls. The author both analyzes a wider set of these polls and presents the findings from the first American multi-question polling of South Korean strategic elites on the nuclear question, finding far more caution, and resistance, to South Korea going nuclear…but not unconditionally. From our Summer 2024 issue.
America's Role in a Post-American Middle East
by Dalia Dassa Kaye
Perceptions of whether the United States is “staying or going” in the Middle East are
increasingly divorced from realities on the ground. The US is both engaged in the region and seeking to reduce its direct commitments, but American regional predominance, if it ever really existed, is certainly now over. So, what is the American role in a post-American Middle East? From our Spring 2022 issue.
Russia’s Failed Nuclear Coercion Against Ukraine
by Anna Clara Arndt, Liviu Horovitz and Michal Onderco
Kyiv itself was not the main target of Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric…until September 2022. Just a few weeks later, Russia suddenly stepped it back. Why? The authors argue that these short-lived attempts failed because of Moscow’s decision-making pathologies which led to three errors. But what do they teach us about nuclear deterrence more broadly?From our Fall 2023 issue.
How Putin's Regime Survivalism Drives Russian Aggression
by Aleksandar Matovski
Geopolitical and ideological motivations cannot explain the timing, among other factors, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead, regime preservation is both often overlooked in Western debates and has implications for the Kremlin’s future behavior, escalation risks, negotiation strategies, and war objectives. Ignoring this self-preservation motive could have catastrophic consequences. From our Summer 2023 issue.
